A closer look at loans, mechanisation hubs, procurement reforms, and the test of trust.
TheDigger Intelligence Unit
In his 2026 Budget, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu unveiled an unusually ambitious agricultural finance program.
The budget states that the Bank of Agriculture (BoA) will provide affordable loans to smallholder farmers, mechanise production across seven regional hubs, and cultivate one million hectares—creating jobs and increasing export value.
But amid the headlines and initiatives, the central question is clear: will Tinubu’s BoA plan deliver real empowerment to Nigeria’s smallholder farmers, or will it fall short, as earlier efforts did?
The Promise
President Tinubu promises affordable finance for smallholders through seven mechanisation hubs and the cultivation of a million hectares.
Furthermore, he disclosed that BoA would create jobs in the hundreds of thousands, offer fair pricing, and maintain substantial reserves to protect harvests.
This is framed as a cornerstone of Tinubu’s “Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity.”
The Procurement Connection
Tinubu’s speech tied the agricultural push to procurement reforms and the Nigeria First Policy. According to the budget, MDAs are mandated to prioritise Nigerian‑made goods, just as procurement processes are being digitised to reduce leakages.
In addition, enforcement against erring contractors is promised.
For farmers, this means that inputs, machinery, and services should increasingly come from local suppliers, potentially boosting domestic agribusiness.
The Accountability Pledge
Tinubu outlined three commitments for 2026: better revenue mobilisation through transparency and compliance, better spending by prioritising projects that can be completed and felt by citizens, and better accountability through procurement discipline and monitoring.
The BoA plan is the central test of whether the government can deliver real, measurable benefits to the intended farmers.
Nigeria’s past agricultural loan schemes, especially the Anchor Borrowers Programme (ABP), promised large-scale cultivation but fell short in delivering on that promise. While Tinubu’s 2026 BoA plan pledges 1 million hectares, past schemes often fell short of their targets due to defaults, corruption, and weak monitoring.
Comparison: BoA 2026 Plan vs. Anchor Borrowers Programme (ABP)
BoA’s 2026 plan aims to cultivate one million hectares, create hundreds of thousands of jobs, and extend affordable loans to millions of smallholders, supported by mechanisation hubs in seven regions in 2026.
Yet to be implemented, the success depends on procurement discipline, debt sustainability, and transparency. This, however, comes with some delivery risks, such as a debt servicing burden of ₦15.52 trillion, past failures in loan accessibility, and corruption in disbursement.
Anchor Borrowers Programme (2015–2022)
ABP promised to revolutionise agriculture, targeting millions of smallholders and large cultivation areas across rice, maize, wheat, cotton, and other crops.
By 2023, CBN reported disbursing ₦503 billion, but only 52.39% was repaid.
Many farmers defaulted, and the hectares cultivated fell short of promises. Reports show widespread loan misuse and poor monitoring.
Key issues in the non-performance of the budget included defaults, elite capture, corruption, lack of transparency and weak monitoring.
Other Agricultural Credit Schemes (2009–2012, ACGSF)
Other ACGSF between 2009 and 2012 had promised to boost productivity through guaranteed loans.
Studies published in the European/American Journals on “Evaluation of Agricultural Lending Schemes in Nigeria ” report that “loans improved yields, but cultivation areas were far below targets due to poor access and repayment bottlenecks.”
Also, the major issues identified are limited reach, bureaucratic bottlenecks and weak farmer support systems.
Key Insights
BoA’s 2026 plan is undoubtedly ambitious, as 1 million hectares is far larger than what ABP achieved in practice and still struggled with defaults.
Over 47% of loans were not repaid, undermining sustainability.
There is also the cultivation gap. While ABP promised nationwide transformation, actual hectares cultivated were far below targets — many farmers never accessed funds or inputs.
Debt sustainability risk is another germane issue to contend with. With ₦15.52 trillion allocated to debt servicing in 2026, financing such a large agricultural push may strain fiscal health.
The Big Questions:
Will smallholder farmers actually gain access to affordable loans, or will these funds primarily benefit elite groups?
Are the planned seven mechanisation hubs currently operational, and what are their specific locations?
What concrete methods will be used to measure and verify the claimed creation of hundreds of thousands of jobs?
Are agricultural input contracts transparent per the Nigeria First Policy, and what mechanisms ensure this?
With ₦15.52 trillion allocated for debt servicing, how will Nigeria fund major agricultural projects without risking its fiscal health?
For farmers in Kaduna, Benue, and Kano, access to affordable finance could affect economic outcomes. Previous agricultural loan schemes have bureaucratic bottlenecks, corruption, and challenges with monitoring.
The Bigger Picture
Tinubu’s budget is not only about numbers; it’s about trust. He declared, “The most significant budget is not the one we announce. It is the one we deliver.”
Ultimately, the BoA initiative will determine whether Tinubu’s 2026 Budget is remembered as a turning point for Nigeria’s farmers — or another chapter in the cycle of broken promises.”
