Table of Contents
When Anna Bjerde, the World Bank’s Managing Director of Operations, visited Nigeria’s State House in Abuja, her comments signaled strong global support.
She said Nigeria had become a “reference point” for reforms. To her, President Bola Tinubu’s broad economic changes were not just bold but also a model now discussed by policymakers and investors worldwide.
For Tinubu’s administration, the World Bank’s recognition was a welcome sign of progress. Two years after starting reforms like ending fuel subsidies, unifying exchange rates, and promising more modern farming, the government says these tough changes are starting to bring stability. “Since we went into this turn of reform, we are never going to look back,” Tinubu told the delegation, adding that Nigeria is committed to moving forward.
But despite praise from abroad, life at home is more difficult. In cities like Lagos, Kano, and Port Harcourt, people talk about hardship, higher prices, and promises that have not been fulfilled.
Global Applause
The World Bank’s support was clear. Bjerde said Nigeria’s reforms are “widely discussed among global leaders.” The Bank’s $17 billion in public sector projects and the IFC’s $5 billion in yearly investments show growing trust. A new Country Partnership Framework is in the works, based on Nigeria’s goal of a $1 trillion economy and seven percent growth.
Key priorities include better infrastructure, modern farming, and more support for small businesses. “Your reforms and our
budget support go hand in hand,” Bjerde told Tinubu, promising more guarantees to bring in private investment.
Painful Reforms, Measured in Numbers
But for many Nigerians, these reforms have been far from easy:
Headline inflation jumped to 24.66% in 2023 and went over 30% in 2024 after subsidies ended and exchange rates were unified. Rebasing later lowered the official number, and by December 2025, inflation was 15.15%, the lowest since 2020. Still, food inflation stayed high at 10.84%, putting pressure on families.
The World Bank estimates that 139 million Nigerians will be living in poverty in 2025, and this could rise to 140 million in 2026 if there is no relief.
Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio dropped from 50.7% in 2024 to 39.4% in 2025 after rebasing. The country’s total public debt reached ₦149.39 trillion, with ₦78.76 trillion owed domestically and ₦70.63 trillion owed externally.
The naira has stayed unstable. In 2025, the exchange rate reached ₦1,607 per dollar in May, dropped to ₦1,425 in October, and averaged ₦1,518 for the year. By January 2026, it was between ₦1,380 and ₦1,420 per dollar.
Investors liked the unified exchange rate, but ongoing swings still hurt small businesses that depend on imports. Tinubu highlights new mechanisation centers and seed support, but farmers say they have trouble accessing these and face higher costs. Civil society groups warn that while reforms may help the economy overall, they could increase inequality if strong social safety nets are missing.
Voices from the Ground
In Lagos, a trader at Balogun Market summed up the frustration: “They say reforms are working, but for us, everything is more expensive. Where is the relief?”
In Kano, a small manufacturer noted that access to credit remains elusive despite promises of SME financing. “Banks still treat us like risks. Nothing has changed,” he said.
In Ibadan, another trader was blunt: “The government says inflation is easing, but in the markets, nothing has come down. We are paying more for everything.”
Investigative Lens
Civil society groups are calling for clear information on how money saved from ending subsidies is being spent. Even though there is talk of public-private partnerships, many projects have not moved forward.
Experts warn that reforms praised overseas could fail if they do not bring real benefits to people in Nigeria.
Critics also warn about stagflation, where the economy faces both high inflation and slow growth. Nigeria’s debt keeps rising, and the naira remains unstable even after reforms meant to steady it.
For some households, reforms celebrated abroad seem to be targeted at investors. For some families, reforms praised in other countries seem aimed more at investors than at ordinary people. “They call it reform, but for us it is survival,” said a commuter in Lagos, describing the daily struggle with transport and food costs. “Nigeria may be a reference point for bold decisions,” one analyst said, “but the test is whether lives improve.”
Conclusion
Nigeria’s reform story is full of contrasts. Internationally, Tinubu’s policies are called courageous and make the country a model for others. At home, though, they are debated—some praise the vision, but others criticize the hardship they bring.
Whether Nigeria becomes a global example depends not only on investor confidence, but also on reforms that provide affordable food, power, and jobs. For now, praise is strong overseas, but people at home remain uneasy.
