Analysis from the United Nations World Food Programme suggests that if the war in Iran continues until June, an additional 45 million people will be without enough food.
By Hannah Osborne
The war in Iran could push an additional 45 million people into acute hunger in just three months, causing record levels of global food insecurity, according to a new analysis from the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP).
The analysis found that if the conflict continues into the middle of the year and oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, an estimated 363 million people would be food insecure, 45 million more than the current 318 million.
The previous record was set when the war in Ukraine began in 2022, which left 349 million people without enough food.
“If this conflict continues, it will send shockwaves across the globe,” Carl Skau, WFP deputy executive director and chief operating officer, said in a statement. “Families who already cannot afford their next meal will be hit the hardest. Without an adequately funded humanitarian response, it could spell catastrophe for millions already on the edge.”
The U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28. Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has been at a virtual standstill since March 2, preventing the trade of essential commodities such as oil, liquefied natural gas, and fertiliser. Rising prices put pressure on regions that rely on food and fuel imports, with countries in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa expected to be the most vulnerable.
The disruption of global fertilisers is a major concern, according to a separate U.N. statement. The timing comes as countries in sub-Saharan Africa head into the planting season, Skau said, adding that around a quarter of the world’s fertiliser passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
The WFP estimated the impact of the conflict on global hunger by counting the number of people who cannot afford a diet providing 2,100 calories per day. It then modelled how a sustained oil price shock — lasting to June — would affect global food prices. Analysts calculated the impact based on each country’s dependence on imported food and energy and the number of people who would no longer be able to afford an energy-sufficient diet.
The region with the biggest increase in food insecurity, they found, was Asia, where an estimated 9.1 million people would be pushed into food insecurity — a 24% rise.
Food insecurity resulting from the war would affect about 17.7 million people in eastern and southern Africa, 2.2 million in Latin America and the Caribbean, 5.2 million in the Middle East and North Africa, and 10.4 million in central Africa.
That would mean an additional 45 million people worldwide meet the definition of food insecurity, bringing the total to 363 million.
“This would take global hunger levels to an all-time record, and it’s a terrible, terrible prospect,” Skau said.
