ANALYSIS | Why The US Won’t Risk War to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz

by Kehinde Adegoke

The United States faces a dilemma in theStrait of Hormuz, where Iran’s recent targeting of commercial ships has disrupted global oil flows and heightened tensions. This crisis tests how far Washington is willing to go to maintain open waterways without risking all-out war.

It has caused a global fuel crisis, even though some ships are managing to get through the strait. US President Donald Trump has given Iran an ultimatum to fully reopen the waterway to oil and gas shipments and called on NATO allies to help in the effort.

The Conversation asked naval expert Jennifer Parker, with 20 years in the Royal Australian Navy, to explain what military force would be needed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and why the US hasn’t acted.

Parker explains the kind of military force required to reopen the strait to commercial shipping and why it has been so hard to prevent attacks on ships.

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She has this to say:

“The geography of the region has a lot to do with this. Iran clearly dominates the northern part of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman. That proximity allows it to use its cheaper weapons, such as drones, to target ships.”

The Strait of Hormuz has faced persistent threats since February, yet the US military has not launched operations to reopen it.

Parker explains that reopening the strait would require a huge, two-stage operation: dismantle Iran’s coastal strike capacity, then maintain continuous air and sea patrols for security.

The obstacles are formidable. Diverting aircraft from other war aims, securing land on both sides of the strait, deploying dozens of naval escorts, and clearing suspected mines would stretch US forces thin. 

Worse still, the risk of heavy casualties from Iran’s drones, missiles, and uncrewed vessels looms large.

Iran itself depends on the Strait for oil exports, making extensive mining unlikely. But even the perception of mines is enough to paralyse shipping. 

For Washington, the priority remains crippling Iran’s strategic capabilities — missiles, nuclear sites, and proxy networks — before committing to the perilous task of reopening Hormuz.

Bottom line: The US hesitates not out of weakness, but because the costs of securing the Strait now may exceed the benefits. In geopolitics, restraint can matter as much as power.

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