The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that Nigeria’s recent gains from higher oil prices will not last.
Nigeria still faces deep structural problems that are slowing its economic progress.
At the Spring Meetings in Washington, IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said oil exporters like Nigeria benefit from higher crude prices.
However, he warned that conflicts and rising energy costs are hurting overall growth.
“The war-related spike in fuel and fertiliser prices, alongside rising shipping costs, is expected to drag on non-oil activity in Nigeria,” said Petya Koeva-Brooks, Deputy Director of the IMF’s Research Department. Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast has since been cut to 4.1 per cent — a sign of just how fragile the recovery remains.
Agriculture is a big part of Nigeria’s economy, so rising costs for supplies are having a strong impact. Food inflation is likely to get worse. Koeva-Brooks urged Nigeria’s central bank to stick to a careful, data-driven approach and warned that unstable exchange rates and rising inflation could harm the wider economy.
The situation in Sub-Saharan Africa is also difficult. Slower global growth, less aid, and worse trade conditions are putting pressure on countries in the region. Bilateral support may fall by as much as 28 percent, leaving governments with less help to deal with outside shocks.
The main message for Nigeria is clear: oil money has its limits. Without steady policies and real reforms, the country will have a hard time keeping up with changes in the global economy.
