The vice-presidential selections from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the All Progressives Congress (APC), the National Democratic Congress (NDC), and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) are not just symbolic gestures — they are strategic moves that could sway key battleground states like Kano, Rivers, and Lagos, ultimately reshaping the power dynamics in Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election. TOYE FALEYE writes
Prelude: The Stakes of 2027
As we gear up for Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election, it’s becoming clear that this contest could be one of the most pivotal in the nation’s democratic journey.
With pressing issues like economic struggles, security concerns, and regional tensions taking centre stage, the selection of running mates has evolved beyond a mere constitutional formality.
In a country where ethnic, religious, and regional considerations often dictate electoral outcomes, the vice-presidential position serves as a strategic tool — a deliberate effort to secure votes in crucial states, reassure doubtful voters, and promote a sense of national unity.
PDP’s Calculated Gamble
The PDP hasn’t officially announced its running mate yet, but insiders are hinting at a southern technocrat or governor being in the mix to balance out their northern presidential candidate.
This decision is crucial. The PDP’s success in 2027 will depend on its ability to regain the trust of southern voters while maintaining its foothold in the north.
A strong southern partner could help the party reconnect with the middle-class voters in Lagos and the traditional PDP supporters in Rivers, but for now, the uncertainty leaves their strategy feeling a bit unfinished.
APC’s Strategy of Continuity
The APC is likely to stick with Kashim Shettima or another prominent northern figure as Bola Tinubu’s running mate. Shettima’s influence in Borno and the broader northeast played a key role in the APC’s victory in 2023, and having him on board ensures the continuity of Tinubu’s north-south alliance.
In Lagos, the APC’s established machinery remains a force to be reckoned with, but the party knows that Kano is where the real battle lies.
Keeping Shettima helps secure northern loyalty, but it doesn’t do much to attract undecided voters.
NDC’s Bold Alliance
Peter Obi’s NDP has taken a bold step by teaming up with Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. Obi brings a youthful energy and urban appeal, while Kwankwaso has a dedicated grassroots following in Kano and throughout northern Nigeria thanks to the Kwankwasiyya movement.
This partnership directly challenges the APC’s stronghold in the north and could turn Kano into a competitive battleground instead of a safe zone.
If Kwankwaso can rally his supporters, Obi’s influence could extend beyond the South-East and the youth in Lagos, forming a truly national coalition.
However, analysts are of the opinion that the youth, relied upon by Obi, are mostly noticeable on social media. There is a gap between online activism and actual voting power.
Young people are leading the charge on social media, driving conversations, trending hashtags, and generating digital excitement, but this enthusiasm often fails to translate into votes at the polls.
The 2023 elections highlighted that while social media can influence narratives and amplify voices, it doesn’t necessarily convert into electoral success.
In 2027, Obi’s NDC will need to find a way to bridge this divide, turning online energy into genuine grassroots mobilisation if they hope to make an impact.
ADC’s Risky Bet
The ADC has made a bold move by selecting Rotimi Amaechi as Atiku Abubakar’s running mate. With his background as the governor of Rivers State and his role as Minister of Transportation, Amaechi certainly has a national profile.
However, his waning influence in Rivers State raises some eyebrows. Critics point out that he may no longer have the clout to secure votes in his home state, while his supporters argue that his knack for building coalitions could nicely complement Atiku’s appeal in the north.
Still, Rivers is a tricky landscape: if Amaechi can’t rally his local supporters, the PDP might just swoop in to reclaim its traditional stronghold, leaving the ADC in a tough spot.
Zone-by-Zone Electoral Scenario
North-West: Kano as the Decider
Kano stands out as the crown jewel of the north-west, boasting a huge voter base. The NDP’s decision to pair Peter Obi with Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso could turn this state into a fierce battleground.
Kwankwaso’s Kwankwasiyya movement has deep roots in the community, and if he can mobilise effectively, it could challenge the APC’s stronghold.
The PDP risks being sidelined unless they team their northern candidate with a compelling southern technocrat who can resonate on a national level.
Meanwhile, the APC, possibly with Kashim Shettima or another prominent northern figure, will be fighting tooth and nail to maintain its grip.
North-East: APC’s Stronghold
The north-east continues to be a solid bastion for the APC, thanks in large part to Kashim Shettima’s sway in Borno and the incumbency of Tinubu.
While NDP’s Kwankwaso might nibble away at some support, the APC’s machinery is well-established and hard to shake.
The PDP’s prospects here look bleak without a strong northern ally. As for the ADC’s Atiku–Amaechi ticket, it may find it tough to gain any real traction, given that Amaechi’s influence doesn’t really extend into the north-east.
North-Central: The Swing Zone
The north-central region has always been a bit of a political battleground, with states like Plateau, Benue, and Kogi often playing a crucial role in tight races.
Historically, the PDP has had a strong showing here, but with the APC in power and the NDP gaining traction among younger voters, the vote could get split.
Kwankwaso’s credibility in the north might give Obi a chance to make inroads in this area, while Amaechi doesn’t seem to offer much to the ADC in this part of the country.
South-East: Obi’s Fortress
The south-east is firmly in Peter Obi’s corner, bolstered by a wave of youthful enthusiasm and strong ethnic loyalty. However, as we saw in 2023, that excitement on social media needs to translate into actual votes.
Kwankwaso’s involvement could enhance Obi’s appeal on a national level, but the APC and PDP are likely to find it tough to gain any real ground here.
The ADC’s Atiku–Amaechi ticket probably won’t strike a chord with voters in the south-east.
South-South: Rivers in Play
Rivers State stands out as the jewel of the South-South. The ADC’s pick of Rotimi Amaechi aims to seize this battleground, but his waning influence raises some questions.
The PDP could make a comeback in Rivers if they find a credible southern running mate, while the APC’s presence is weaker, though they benefit from being in power at the federal level.
Obi’s NDP might resonate with some young voters, but the political landscape in Rivers is deeply rooted in PDP traditions.
South-West: Lagos as the Urban Decider
Lagos, the economic powerhouse of Nigeria, has long been a stronghold for the APC, thanks to Tinubu’s political machinery.
However, Obi’s appeal to the youth in 2023 demonstrated that Lagos isn’t completely untouchable. Kwankwaso’s influence from the north could help Obi expand his coalition beyond just urban youth.
The PDP’s eventual choice of a southern technocrat might connect with Lagos’ middle-class voters, but the APC’s established structure remains a tough opponent.
Meanwhile, ADC’s Amaechi doesn’t seem to bring much to the table in Lagos, leaving the main contest between the APC and NDP.
More than Just Sidekicks
In the 2027 elections, running mates are more than just sidekicks; they’re key players in the strategy. Kwankwaso’s ability to rally grassroots support could change the way northern voters think.
Meanwhile, Amaechi’s influence, which is up for debate, might just hurt the ADC’s prospects in Rivers. Shettima’s role ensures that the APC’s operations keep running smoothly, while the PDP’s choice from the south could help them connect better with voters in Lagos and Rivers.
All these partnerships will play a crucial role in deciding if Nigeria’s electoral landscape shifts significantly or sticks to its traditional loyalties.
