As global research tallies disinformation’s $516 billion toll, Nigeria’s own experience — from election falsehoods to shrinking newsroom budgets — shows the price isn’t abstract. It’s already being paid in trust, stability, and the survival of independent journalism. KEHINDE ADEGOKE writes.
A new global evidence report is making the economic case for journalism just as Nigeria’s own newsrooms are shrinking under funding pressure — and the country’s 2023 election offers a stark preview of what happens when disinformation fills the vacuum.
The Global Picture
The report, The Value of Journalism: Global Evidence on Why Media Matters to Economies, National Security and Crises, was launched in June at the Global Media Forum in Bonn, Germany, jointly backed by UNESCO, DW Akademie and the International Fund for Public Interest Media. It was authored by Professor Mel Bunce and Dr Beth Pearson of City, St George’s, University of London, who synthesised two decades of academic research into journalism’s measurable value to societies.
Among the headline findings:
A review of 97 countries found that declining press freedom is associated with a 1–2 per cent drop in real GDP growth — a hit that is slow to reverse.
Every $1 invested in journalism can return more than $100 in public savings, through recovered funds, better public services and reduced corruption.
Independent journalism — one of the most effective tools against disinformation — is undercut by a problem now estimated to cost the world between $355 billion and $516 billion annually.
That range traces back to a separate economic modelling exercise by Sopra Steria, which broke down 2024’s global disinformation costs by domain: financial harm alone was estimated at $353–456 billion, with social and political costs adding tens of billions more, depending on the scenario used.
UNESCO’s report folds that estimate into its broader argument that a free press is not a cost to society but an investment with measurable returns.
The timing is pointed. The report itself notes that it lands at a moment when public funding for media is falling, platforms and AI are squeezing traditional revenue, and international aid for media development has been cut sharply — leaving audiences worldwide with shrinking access to reliable journalism just as disinformation’s price tag climbs.
A Nigerian Preview of the Cost
Nigeria doesn’t need a global model to know what disinformation can cost. During the 2023 general elections, false narratives exploiting ethnic fault lines — including claims that Igbo residents intended to annex Lagos in the event of a national breakup — spread rapidly on encrypted platforms. The claims stoked real tension in Lagos, contributing to violence that left people injured and at least one person dead.
That episode is a small, local illustration of the dynamic the UNESCO report describes on a global scale: when trusted information collapses or is crowded out, false narratives move faster than the truth can catch up, and the damage isn’t only reputational — it’s measured in growth, in public funds lost to unchecked corruption, and in some cases, in lives.
Researchers who have studied Nigeria’s information environment describe disinformation as a long-standing feature of public life, historically spread by word of mouth and now supercharged by social media’s speed and reach — increasingly blurring the line between what circulates online and what gets reported as fact in traditional outlets.
A review of Nigerian media coverage — including outlets that regularly report on press freedom and disinformation — shows no reporting that links the UNESCO‑commissioned study or its global cost estimates to Nigeria’s own experience. This gap highlights an opportunity to localise a global finding: as Nigerian newsrooms face the same financial and credibility pressures identified worldwide, the relevant question becomes not only what disinformation costs globally, but what it is already costing Nigeria — in elections, in public trust, and in the diminishing capacity of independent journalism to hold power accountable.
