By Adewale M. Okoya
Nigeria has started an important national conversation. President Bola Tinubu recently observed that he has no control over the trajectory of population growth, while the Emir of Kano, Muhammadu Sanusi II, argued that Nigeria’s economy is now growing faster than its population. Both statements deserve careful examination because they touch the heart of the country’s future.
The President is right in one important respect. In a democratic society, the government cannot and should not dictate how many children families should have. Decisions about family size belong to individuals. Governments that have tried to impose population control through force have often created new social and human rights problems.
But that does not mean the government does not influence population growth.
Governments may not decide how many children people have, but they certainly shape the conditions under which those decisions are made. When girls remain in school, when women have access to quality healthcare, when families have access to voluntary family planning, when child mortality falls and when economic opportunities improve, birth rates often decline naturally. Around the world, this pattern has repeated itself for decades.
The philosopher Aristotle observed that “The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.” Population policy is a good example. It is not one government programme but the combined effect of education, healthcare, employment, housing and economic security.
The Emir of Kano’s observation is equally significant. For many years, Nigeria’s population grew faster than its economy. As a result, economic growth was often cancelled out by rapid population increase. If the economy is now expanding faster than the population, it represents an important turning point. It means average income has a better chance of rising if that trend continues.
However, one year of encouraging figures does not settle the matter.
Economic growth must be sustained over many years before it changes the lives of ordinary Nigerians. Growth must also create jobs, reduce poverty, improve healthcare, strengthen education and lower the cost of living. Gross Domestic Product is an important measure, but families judge the economy by what reaches their dinner tables.
As Amartya Sen reminds us, “Development is freedom.” An economy has truly grown only when it expands people’s opportunities to live healthier, better educated and more productive lives.
Whether one agrees more with President Tinubu or Emir Sanusi, both viewpoints point to one unavoidable conclusion: Nigeria urgently needs accurate population data.
The country’s last population census was conducted in 2006. Since then, millions of children have been born, cities have expanded, migration patterns have changed, and new communities have emerged. Yet governments continue to rely largely on projections instead of current national data.
Planning a nation without a recent census is like building a house without measuring the land first.
The United Nations recommends that countries conduct a population and housing census at least once every ten years because population changes constantly. Reliable census data allows governments to plan schools, hospitals, roads, electricity supply, housing, security, water systems and public transport based on facts rather than assumptions.
Without regular census data, governments risk building infrastructure where demand has fallen while neglecting rapidly growing communities. Hospital beds may be too few. Schools become overcrowded. Housing shortages worsen. Electoral constituencies become outdated. Revenue allocation becomes contentious because nobody knows with certainty where people actually live.
Population figures are not merely statistics. They are the foundation of national planning.
The management thinker Peter Drucker famously said, “What gets measured gets managed.” A nation that does not regularly count its people cannot effectively manage their needs.
A credible census would also improve economic policy. It would help the government understand labour market trends, youth unemployment, urbanisation, internal migration, housing demand and future infrastructure needs. It would also give private investors greater confidence when deciding where to establish factories, shopping centres, farms and industrial parks.
Population management itself should never be confused with population control. The objective is not to reduce the number of Nigerians. The objective is to ensure that economic growth, public services and infrastructure grow fast enough to support the population. When this happens, the country enjoys what economists call a demographic dividend—a situation where a healthy, educated and employed workforce becomes an engine of economic growth.
Nigeria possesses one of the world’s youngest populations. That is not a burden; it is potentially the country’s greatest competitive advantage. But a youthful population becomes an asset only when young people are educated, skilled, healthy and employed. Otherwise, unemployment, poverty and insecurity become inevitable.
The forthcoming elections should therefore focus on more than campaign promises. Nigerians should ask candidates how they intend to sustain economic growth above population growth, conduct a credible national census, improve education and healthcare, expand employment opportunities and strengthen family planning through voluntary, rights-based policies.
President Tinubu is correct that the government cannot simply order citizens to have fewer children. Emir Sanusi is also correct that faster economic growth offers hope for the future. But both observations lead to the same responsibility. The government must create the conditions that allow families to make informed choices, while ensuring that national planning is based on reliable data rather than estimates.
The philosopher Confucius once said, “To govern is to correct.” Good governance begins with understanding the people being governed. Nigeria cannot build the future on guesses. It must count its people, invest in them and create an economy that grows not only faster than the population but faster than poverty itself.
