The naira has found its breath, farm produce prices have crashed, yet Nigerians still pay yesterday’s costs for today’s bread.
As flour and rice grow cheaper, bakers refuse to reflect the relief, leaving households trapped in a paradox where the market smiles but the table still frowns.
For the first time in years, the price of farm produce has dropped. Wheat, rice, beans, and maize are all cheaper. A bag of flour that once threatened to bankrupt small bakeries now sells at a far more affordable price.
Yet bakers have not reflected this in their products, still selling bread at high prices that ignore Nigeria’s current economic reality.
The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) recently called on Nigerians to resist the high price of bread nationwide. Its President, Joe Ajaero, urged citizens to insist that bread prices come down to reflect the naira’s true strength and stability.
The naira presently trades at ₦780/$ in the official market, stretching further than it did last year. The reason lies in Nigeria’s shifting economic winds.
A firmer naira, trading around ₦780 in the official window and stabilising against the dollar, has eased the cost of imports.
Yet bread prices still reflect last year’s exchange rates.
For instance, on December 1, 2024, the US Dollar traded at around ₦1,470 to the Nigerian Naira in the open market.
Currently, local farmers — particularly from the northern part of Nigeria — who have benefited from subsidised seed, fertilisers, farm equipment, and grants, and who enjoyed a productive wet season, have brought in larger harvests of rice, beans, sorghum, millet, soybean and maize.
The result is that food inflation has slowed, with some analysts even suggesting single-digit figures.
Farmers from the North recently raised the alarm, calling on the government to help clear their produce. They warn that the crash in farm produce prices has reached its peak and, if left unaddressed, could push indebted farmers into financial ruin.
For the bakers, this is a rare moment of relief. Yet they refuse to let the downward trend in flour prices reflect in the cost of his bread, forcing Nigerians — including the NLC — to insist that “Nigerians are truly Nigerians’ problem.”
Mr Lonpe, based in Ibadan, expressed shock at an encounter in his office. A woman came to advertise her local rice, insisting on selling it at ₦63,000, even though imported rice sells between ₦51,000 and ₦55,000.
When asked about the price disparity, she blamed President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for the price crash, claiming it was tied to his ambition for the 2027 election. “I was shocked to hear this,” Mr Lonpe said.
Lonpe concluded: “Nigerian traders are the real problem of Nigerians and not the government. Otherwise, why would anyone blame the government for making food affordable for its citizens?”
Yet beneath the optimism lies caution. Economists warn that Nigeria’s dependency on imports and on global oil revenues makes the naira’s stability fragile.
A sudden shock in oil prices or foreign reserves could reverse these gains.
For now, though, the story is one of hope: the dollar no longer dictates every hardship, and the naira has given households a brief respite.