Experts warn that overlapping budgets, unrealistic oil benchmarks, and delayed capital projects threaten fiscal discipline and public trust.
Nigeria’s budgeting system is under intense scrutiny as President Bola Tinubu’s ₦58.47 trillion 2026 fiscal plan collides with unresolved inconsistencies from previous years, raising fears of fiscal indiscipline, weak transparency, and delayed impact on citizens.
Tinubu presented the 2026 Appropriation Bill to the National Assembly on December 19, 2025, effectively ruling out a January–December budget cycle. The proposal allocates ₦5.41 trillion to Security and Defence, ₦3.56 trillion to Infrastructure, ₦3.52 trillion to Education, and ₦2.48 trillion to Health. It is anchored on projected revenue of ₦34.33 trillion, expenditure of ₦58.18 trillion, and ₦15.52 trillion for debt servicing.
But economists and policy experts warn that Nigeria’s fiscal framework is breaking down. Prof. Ken Ife, Lead Consultant on Private Sector Development to ECOWAS, urged repeal of the 2025 Appropriation Act and consolidation into the 2026 budget, citing “budget indiscipline” and disregard for the Fiscal Responsibility Act (2007). He described the $75 oil benchmark in 2025 as “unrealistic,” given global forecasts of $65–70.
Eze Onyekpere, Director of the Centre for Social Justice, called the current practice unconstitutional, stressing that financial years must run January–December unless formally amended. He warned that capital projects are being delayed while recurrent spending dominates.
Economist Sanya Adejokun decried the overlap of three budgets running simultaneously, saying even civil servants “find it difficult to say which one is being implemented.” Seun Onigbinde, Co-founder of BudgIT, described the process as “chaotic and uncoordinated,” noting that both 2023 and 2024 budgets were extended into 2025 without justification, eroding public trust.
Dr Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), acknowledged that the 2026 budget is better structured than its predecessors but warned that oil benchmarks and production targets remain overly optimistic. Tajudeen Abbas, Speaker of the House of Representatives, cautioned against unrealistic projections, urging that 2026 must be “a year of fulfilment” where growth translates into jobs and incomes.
Analysts at PwC flagged revenue growth projections of 15.3% in 2026 as “bold” and potentially unattainable amid global uncertainty. Tinubu, however, insisted the 2026 budget would be guided by transparency, accountability, and disciplined execution, prioritising projects that can be completed and felt by citizens.
Big Deal Intelligence Angle
This is not just a budget story — it is a systemic governance crisis. Three overlapping budgets (2024, 2025, 2026) undermine fiscal clarity. Unrealistic oil benchmarks inflate deficits and crowd out capital expenditure. Delayed capital implementation weakens infrastructure delivery and economic impact. Constitutional breaches in financial year timelines erode the rule of law. Public trust deficit grows as fiscal management appears ad hoc and politicised.
Nigeria’s fiscal credibility is on the line. Without urgent reform, the nation risks deeper debt, weaker investor confidence, and prolonged economic stagnation.