Rebasing Masks Real Strain As Families Battle Food, Transport Costs
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate was 15.15 percent in December 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). While the official numbers suggest that price pressures are easing, economists and market analysts say these figures mask the real challenges households face with higher energy costs, uneven food prices, and regional differences.
The Statistician-General of the Federation, Adeyemi Adeniran, announced the figures in Abuja on Thursday. He said the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 131.2 points, up by 0.7 points from November. He also noted that month-on-month inflation slowed to 0.54 percent, down from 1.22 percent in November.
Expert Reactions
Economists say the apparent slowdown is mostly due to the recent CPI rebasing, which changed the base year from 2009 to 2024.
“The drop in headline inflation is more statistical than real. Rebasing has softened the numbers, but Nigerians still feel the pinch in transport, food, and energy costs,” said Dr. Bismarck Rewane, Chief Executive of Financial Derivatives Company.
“Energy inflation at 2.74 per cent is the silent driver. Without tackling fuel and electricity bottlenecks, inflation will remain stubborn, regardless of what the headline rate says,” added Prof. Uche Uwaleke, an economist.
At Wuse Market in Abuja, traders were skeptical about the official numbers. “Tomatoes may be cheaper in December, but transport costs wipe out any savings. By the time food gets to the city, prices are higher than what the statistics show,” one trader said.
Food Inflation Uneven Across States
Food inflation was 10.84 percent year-on-year, but dropped month-on-month to -0.36 percent. The NBS said the decline was due to lower prices for staples such as garri, eggs, and millet.
However, this relief was not felt everywhere. Yobe (15.25%), Ogun (14.12%), and Abuja (13.24%) had the highest food inflation rates.
Akwa Ibom (4.34%) and Sokoto (4.62%) had the slowest increases. Analysts say insecurity in farming areas and poor logistics are among the reasons some states have much higher food inflation than others.
Urban vs Rural Divide
Urban inflation increased to 14.85 percent, while rural inflation dropped to 14.56 percent. Month-to-month, rural inflation fell sharply to -0.55 percent, while urban inflation went up to 0.99 percent.
This means rural households may benefit from local food production, while urban families still face unstable transport and energy costs.
State-Level Shockwaves
The breakdown by state showed significant differences: Abia (19.03%), Ogun (18.80%), and Katsina (18.66%) had the highest inflation rates, while Sokoto (8.61%), Plateau (9.05%), and Kaduna (10.38%) had the lowest.
These differences show how unevenly inflation affects Nigeria’s regions and raise questions about whether federal help is reaching the areas that need it most.
Conclusion
Although the NBS headline figure of 15.15 percent suggests progress, experts warn that the relief is mostly on paper. Rebasing has changed the numbers, but families still struggle with food and energy costs, and large regional differences remain.
Economists warn that unless structural reforms fix energy and logistics, Nigeria’s inflation “mirage” will continue. Families will keep feeling the impact of an economy where statistics say one thing, but daily life says another.