Global energy markets entered their most severe disruption in decades after the United States and Israel launched a large-scale air campaign against Iran on Saturday, prompting Iranian retaliation across the Middle East.
On Monday, Brent crude prices surged more than 10% to $82 per barrel, the highest in over a year, before easing slightly. European natural gas prices jumped nearly 30%, reflecting investor fears over supply security in the world’s most critical energy-producing region.
Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude and refined products — about one-fifth of global consumption — has been suspended. Operators halted transit after at least three tankers were attacked, raising fears of entrapment inside the Gulf.
Saudi Arabia shut its largest domestic refinery at Ras Tanura following a drone strike, while Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG producer, halted output at its Ras Laffan complex, which supplies one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas.
On Sunday, OPEC+ announced a modest 206,000-barrel-per-day production increase for April, but analysts say the move is overshadowed by the scale of the disruption.
U.S. President Donald Trump said military operations could last “at least four weeks.” Washington is expected to prioritise reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though experts warn the task will be difficult given Iran’s ability to target oilfields and infrastructure.
The conflict has created a doomsday scenario for energy markets, with oil and gas supplies disrupted across multiple countries. The duration of the crisis — and its impact on global prices — will depend on how quickly shipping lanes and production facilities can be secured.
