Kehinde Adegoke | International Reports
With Venezuela subdued and Iran still smouldering, Donald Trump has set his sights on a new target — one he believes will be his easiest yet. “Cuba is next,” the U.S. President declared at a Miami rally on the 27th. “Cuba is currently very weak,” he added, and for once, the facts appear to back him up.
It is known that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is currently negotiating with the Cuban government and demanding the resignation of President Miguel Díaz-Canel.
The New York Times reported, “Trump wants to achieve the political feat of ousting the leader of a leftist government that has long opposed the U.S. ahead of the midterm elections.”
Díaz-Canel, classified as a “hardliner” toward the U.S., assumed the presidency in 2018, succeeding Raúl Castro, and became the First Secretary of the Communist Party in 2021. Analyses suggest that during his tenure, Cuba’s economic crisis deepened, leading to a mass exodus, making him a target for ouster.
In response, Cuban President Díaz-Canel retorted, “We will not simply stand by with our arms crossed,” while Cuba’s deputy foreign minister stated, “It would be naive not to prepare for a U.S. invasion. Our military has always been ready.”
However, observations suggest that Cuba’s military capabilities lag far behind not only Iran but also Venezuela, making defence difficult if the U.S. actually mobilises its military.
Cuba, with a regular army of around 50,000 troops, operates Soviet-era tanks, armoured vehicles, and fighter jets, among other outdated equipment. Even these are known to have low operational rates, suggesting that the military focuses primarily on defensive strategies.
While Cuba exerted significant military influence during the Cold War through deployments to Africa, its military modernisation has effectively halted since support ceased following the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991.
Considering that Venezuela, with a military force of around 120,000, and Iran, a Middle Eastern military power with over 600,000 troops, were also powerless against U.S. military strikes, Trump’s recent remark, made last month as if discussing a corporate acquisition, “Cuba has no money or oil.
We can acquire Cuba amicably,” may not be mere bravado. However, some analysts argue that while Cuba’s regular army size and equipment levels are poor, it maintains a certain degree of internal control system combining the military, intelligence agencies, and militias centred around the Communist Party, making it difficult to conclusively predict a rapid collapse of the regime in the event of an external attack.