The World Bank projects an improved outlook for Nigeria, but identifies high inflation and weak early childhood development as critical challenges.
Matthew Verghis, the World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, introduced these findings during a statement in Abuja on Tuesday, setting the stage for a discussion of the nation’s current challenges and opportunities.
He presented the bank’s April edition of the Nigeria Development Update (NDU) report, establishing a direct link between Nigeria’s economic outlook and the challenges it faces.
The report is titled “Nigeria’s Tomorrow Must Start Today: The Case for Early Childhood Development”.
The country director clarified that the report highlights early childhood development as Nigeria’s most crucial investment for achieving long-term economic and social success, and that this is its central message.
According to him, during the period from pregnancy to about five years, children’s brain development is most rapid and most sensitive to nutrition, health stimulation, early learning, and safety.
“Investments during these early years yield strong returns, estimated at between seven and 13 per cent annually, through better learning outcomes, higher earnings, lower health costs and stronger social cohesion,” he said.
However, Nigeria’s early childhood indicators remain weak and uneven across regions and fall short of global standards.
On average, 110 of every 1,000 children die before age five, while 40 per cent are stunted, and 52 per cent are not developmentally on track before school.
Verghis attributed the situation to limited access to basic services, including maternal healthcare, nutrition, clean water, and sanitation.
He said that the challenges were more severe among poorer households and in the northern parts of the country.
“These figures should be treated as a crisis for a country with Nigeria’s aspirations,” he said.
He acknowledged that the government, with World Bank and partner support, continues efforts to improve child health and nutrition by strengthening primary healthcare systems.
He called for coordinated, child-focused programmes supporting families from pregnancy through age five.
Verghis said efforts were underway, in collaboration with the National Economic and Development Authority and state governments, to develop a comprehensive national programme for early childhood development.
Development partners, including the World Bank and the Gates Foundation, support the initiative.
He said, “A coordinated approach that aligns policies, strengthens cooperation, and scales interventions is essential to achieving the main message: improving outcomes for Nigerian children by prioritising early childhood development.”
He reaffirmed the World Bank’s commitment to support Nigeria in prioritising early childhood development as the foundation for sustainable growth and improved quality of life.
Building on this discussion, Fiseha Haile, the World Bank’s Lead Economist for Nigeria, provided further context on the nation’s economic outlook, noting that it remains cautiously optimistic.
Growth is projected at 4.2 per cent from 2026 to 2028, driven by reforms and investment.
“Nigeria’s external position remains positive, while ongoing reforms are yielding results.”
Haile, however, said that rising global uncertainty, particularly the ongoing Middle East conflict, posed risks to the economy.
Haile noted that inflation erodes purchasing power, requiring structural steps such as reducing trade barriers and supporting vulnerable groups with cash transfers.
Haile said Nigeria needed to reduce inflation sustainably while promoting inclusive economic growth so citizens can feel the benefits of ongoing reforms.
He said disciplined fiscal, monetary, and FX policies, alongside market reforms, are essential.
He advised the government to save oil windfalls and replace broad subsidies with targeted social support.
He suggested restoring competition in the fuel sector, allowing imports, lowering tariffs, and removing bans to cut production costs.
