Consensus candidacy is changing how party primaries work in the APC, PDP, LP, and NNPP ahead of 2027. However, its true democratic value remains debated, reports TOYE FALEYE.
Legal and Political Context
Consensus candidacy has become a standard feature of Nigeria’s political system. The Electoral Act permits it only when all aspirants sign a written agreement endorsing the chosen candidate.
If even one aspirant declines, the party must conduct direct primaries. While this rule aims to ensure fairness, in practice, consensus often results from elite negotiations rather than genuine compromise.
The APC frequently employs consensus, particularly in the South-West where President Bola Tinubu holds significant sway. The PDP uses consensus to manage zoning arrangements and appease influential factions.
For smaller parties like the Labour Party, consensus is attractive because it reduces costs, while the NNPP leverages it to solidify the Kwankwasiyya movement. Although all parties claim consensus promotes unity, they also face criticism for sidelining certain aspirants.
Historical Precedents
Consensus politics has a long history in Nigeria. Since 1999, parties have frequently relied on consensus to avoid internal conflicts.
In 2003, the PDP endorsed former President Olusegun Obasanjo for a second term through consensus, sidelining internal critics. Similarly, in 2011, Goodluck Jonathan emerged as the candidate via consensus, sparking debate over zoning agreements.
The APC was formed through consensus in 2013, when multiple opposition parties united behind Muhammadu Buhari for president in 2015, ending the PDP’s 16-year rule.
However, consensus has not always yielded positive results. In 2019, attempts by PDP leaders to impose consensus candidates in some states led to defections and parallel primaries. These cases demonstrate that consensus can either strengthen or undermine parties, depending on how it is implemented.
State Case Studies: Oyo, Gombe, Osun
Oyo State:
The APC chose Senator Sharafadeen Alli as its consensus candidate for governor, but former minister Adebayo Adelabu has pushed back.
Adelabu says the process feels forced and that using consensus without real agreement weakens democracy. This disagreement has created tension in the party, and there are worries that members might leave if it continues.
Gombe State:
In Gombe, when Jamilu Gwamna was picked as the consensus candidate, Isa Pantami’s group was upset. They said the party broke Section 84 of the Electoral Act, which says all aspirants must give written consent.
The group called for direct primaries, showing how consensus can quickly lead to legal and political disputes.
Osun State:
Osun State shows a smoother process. Bola Oyebamiji became the consensus candidate after nine other aspirants stepped down on their own.
Party leaders supported his selection, and President Tinubu congratulated him. In this case, consensus reduced conflict and helped the party present a united front.
Benefits of Consensus Politics
Supporters say consensus helps avoid tough primaries that can split parties and drain resources. It also reduces the many pre-election lawsuits that have filled Nigeria’s courts in the past.
Consensus can help keep fragile democracies stable by encouraging negotiation and compromise, which are key democratic values.
When everyone agrees freely, consensus shows real group decision-making. It lets parties show unity to voters and avoids public fights. For smaller parties like Labour, consensus is a practical way to save money while still running candidates in many areas.
Drawbacks of Consensus Politics
Critics say that consensus reduces competition, limits voters’ choices, and keeps power in the hands of elites. They argue that aspirants often sign agreements under pressure, not because they truly agree.
This lack of openness means consensus candidates might skip public debates or manifestos, so voters miss the chance to judge their ideas.
In places like Oyo and Gombe, consensus has already caused serious arguments, with some groups accusing party leaders of breaking the Electoral Act.
These disputes make people trust parties less, both inside and outside the party. In the past, forced consensus has often led to members leaving, which weakens parties instead of making them stronger.
Outlook for 2027 Elections
As 2027 approaches, consensus candidacy will stay important in party politics. The APC will probably use it to keep order, especially where Tinubu has the most influence.
The PDP may keep using consensus to balance its north-south alliances, but defections could be a problem.
The Labour Party’s national presence may depend on getting agreement on candidates, and the NNPP plans to use consensus to keep its group together.
Consensus will probably cut down on messy primaries and legal fights, but it could also erode voters’ trust if they see it as forced by elites.
While it might help parties stay stable for now, over time, it could hurt democracy by limiting the number of candidates.
Expert Perspectives
Political commentators do not all agree. One political scientist says consensus “can be a stabilising mechanism in fragile democracies, provided it is honestly voluntary.”
He points out that because Nigeria has a history of factions, consensus is an attractive way to build peace.
A constitutional lawyer warns that consensus “has become a euphemism for imposition,” saying that many aspirants sign because they feel pressured, not because they truly agree. He believes democracy works best with competition and openness, not secret deals.
A journalist adds that consensus “reflects the dominance of party godfathers,” and warns it could push away younger aspirants who feel the process is unfair.
Consensus Politics and Party Unity
Consensus candidacy is now a permanent part of Nigeria’s political and legal system. Whether it supports democracy depends on how it is used.
If everyone agrees freely, it can show compromise and shared decision-making. If it is forced, it hurts fairness and limits voter choice.
As 2027 nears, parties must find a way to use consensus to build unity without harming democracy. How they handle this will shape both the primaries and Nigeria’s wider democratic future.
The real challenge is making sure consensus politics encourages real participation and builds both party stability and trust among voters.