Church leaders are urging Jonathan to avoid the race. Privately, the former president is seriously considering one final political move versus maintaining the established statesman image he has developed since 2015, TOYE FALEYE writes.
A Warning Delivered Like a Father’s Advice
It wasn’t a press conference. It wasn’t a tweet. It was a sermon. On May 16, in the quiet formality of the Anglican Synod in Abuja, Primate Henry Ndukuba looked out at his clergy and said what a lot of Nigerians have been thinking out loud in private: Goodluck Jonathan, don’t go back.
“Keep off for now, let them just play it,” he said, his voice marked by experience watching leaders trade lasting legacies for brief returns to power. “Be the senior citizen that you should be.”
You could sense the subtext: Ndukuba wasn’t afraid that Jonathan couldn’t run. He feared Jonathan could run, lose, and diminish the respect he had spent the last decade building.
The Man Who Became a Symbol
Remember 2015? When Jonathan picked up the phone, he conceded to Buhari before the final results were in, and probably saved Nigeria from a bloodbath. That phone call made him something rare in African politics: a former president people still trust.
Since then, he’s been everywhere in Nigerian politics: ECOWAS envoy, AU mediation. He’s called when things fall apart. Presidents listen to him—not to a future contender. That’s what Ndukuba wants to protect: “You are a symbol that should stand,” he told Jonathan. “A hope for our generation, that it is possible to lead with integrity and pass on a worthy legacy.”
In Nigeria, where ex-presidents usually become elder statesmen in name only, that’s no small thing.
The Church Isn’t Alone in Worrying
The Anglican Primate wasn’t speaking in isolation. Inside the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), senior voices are saying the same thing, just more bluntly. One CAN leader told Vanguard that Jonathan’s entry would “overheat the system.”
Here’s why they’re worried: if Jonathan runs, the South-South is expected to consolidate around him. With Peter Obi in the race, the South-East would likely support Obi. If Atiku and Kwankwaso both contest, the North’s vote fragments between them. In this scenario, Tinubu, with his stronghold in the South-West, stands to benefit from a divided opposition.
Even Primate Elijah Ayodele, who’s known for dramatic prophecies, struck a cautious tone. Jonathan could “shake APC,” he said. But that ambition might also “stain your good image.”
For the church, it’s not just about politics. It’s about a man who has something most Nigerian politicians don’t: goodwill that cuts across region and religion. Once he spends it on another campaign, it’s gone.
Inside the PDP, Nobody’s Sure What to Do
The PDP is split. Half want Jonathan’s return, half are reluctant.
The Wike faction maintains a cautious stance: “Goodluck has not purchased our form yet,” said spokesperson Mohammed Haruna Jungudo. “We are not expecting him to come.”
The Turaki faction adopts a neutral position. “That is for him to determine,” said Ini Ememobong. “What we can say is that his name is on our register.”
Meanwhile, a Northern PDP Support Group has started campaigning for Jonathan, arguing he alone can redeem the party’s image. They point to a 2022 court ruling confirming his eligibility, though Jonathan himself hasn’t spoken.
APC Isn’t Losing Sleep
The APC is not concerned about Jonathan’s potential run. “We defeated him when he was in power,” said APC’s Bala Ibrahim. “Defeating him when he’s out of power will be a walkover.”
Another APC voice, Iniobong John, called it a “disastrous political decision” that would end in defeat and damage Jonathan’s reputation.
For the ruling party, a fragmented opposition serves Tinubu, echoing the dynamic of 2023.
Can Jonathan win? The odds, the numbers, and the strategy matter now more than ever.
Let’s be honest about the numbers. Jonathan’s home base, the South-South, is considered his stronghold; if he runs, Bayelsa, Delta, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, and Cross River are likely to align behind him unless the federal government intervenes vigorously.
The South-East is more complex. If Obi stays out, Jonathan may attract most of the South-East votes. If Obi runs, the support divides, with Obi projected to take a larger share.
The North-West and North-East remain challenging for Jonathan. Both typically favour the APC; in 2015, Jonathan received less than 35% in these areas. Many in the North still feel they lost years of influence after his concession.
The South-West is Tinubu’s domain. In Nigerian politics, incumbents rarely lose their home region. Even with a Yoruba running mate, Jonathan’s chances of exceeding a third of the vote here are slim.
That leaves North-Central states like Benue, Plateau, parts of Niger, and Kogi. This region can swing either way and is accessible to Jonathan if he focuses on security and national cohesion, but the fight will be intense.
To win, he needs 25% in 24 states and the highest total votes. That means flipping three or four Northern states from the APC. Doable, but only if the opposition unites behind him.
Right now, if everyone runs separately, Tinubu wins with about 36-39%. Jonathan gets 22-26%, Obi 18-22%, and Atiku 12-15%. He finishes second, and his legacy takes a hit.
The Weight Tinubu Carries Into This Race
Tinubu has three things Jonathan doesn’t have. First, he has the federal government. INEC, the security agencies, the projects, the money. In Nigeria, incumbents rarely lose unless the country is on fire.
Second, he has a party that, for all its flaws, is still mostly intact. The PDP is split into two factions that can’t even agree on a convention.
Third, he gets to define the story. He can frame Jonathan as yesterday’s man who had his chance. And he can run on “let me finish what I started.”
The only way an incumbent loses here is if the economy collapses, insecurity gets worse, and the opposition gets its act together. Inflation is still painful, insecurity is still real, but it’s not at 2015 levels yet.
The One Thing That Changes Everything
Opposition unity. If Peter Obi and Atiku step aside and back Jonathan, this race changes overnight. Suddenly, he’s the candidate of the South-South, the South-East, and chunks of the North-Central and North. He becomes the favourite.
But that’s the problem. Obi says he’s running. Atiku hasn’t stepped aside for anyone in 20 years. Kwankwaso isn’t leaving Kano for anybody.
Jonathan’s camp has reportedly reached out to Obi. Obi’s camp says it never happened. Either way, nobody’s blinking yet.
And Jonathan? He’s Quiet
He hasn’t said a word since Ndukuba’s sermon. His spokesperson didn’t answer calls. What we know is this: his lawyers are in court trying to kill a suit that wants to bar him from running. They call it frivolous. The judge adjourned the case to May 15. He hasn’t picked forms from either PDP faction. His name is on the register, but his mind isn’t on paper yet.
This Is About More Than One Election
At the heart is a question: do we reward leaders who walk away, or only honour those who hold on?
If Jonathan runs and wins, he becomes the African exception—the ex-president who came back and made it work. If he runs and loses badly, he becomes another name on the list of leaders who couldn’t let go.
If he stays out, he cements something different. The man who chose to be useful without being in power. In a country where that almost never happens, that matters.
Ndukuba’s “keep off” wasn’t just advice. It was a test. Can Nigeria make space for leaders who decide that their best service comes after office?
What to Watch Next
Three things will tell us where this is heading. First, does Jonathan break his silence? He can’t stay quiet forever if the pressure builds.
Second, does the PDP sort itself out? If Wike and Turaki can’t agree on a candidate, Jonathan won’t have a platform.
Third, what does the court say about his eligibility? The politics won’t matter if the law says no.
For now, the church has spoken. The parties are manoeuvring. And Jonathan is sitting with a choice that has nothing to do with votes, and everything to do with how history remembers him.
The math says he loses without unity. The math says he wins if he gets it.
Whether he’s willing to risk the statesman’s robe for one more fight—that’s what Abuja is waiting to find out.