As South Africa faces increasing criticism for xenophobic violence, Nigeria’s response could reshape its leadership role in Africa. This moment calls for a careful balance of history, diplomacy, and domestic reform, writes TOYE FALEYE.
Botswana and Tanzania Take Action
Botswana and Tanzania cut electricity supplies, recalled their citizens, and issued ultimatums to South Africa.
These moves are more than diplomatic gestures; they are strong warnings. They reflect growing frustration in Africa over Pretoria’s failure to protect foreign nationals from xenophobic violence.
Between 2008 and 2019, South Africa saw several waves of xenophobic attacks. Hundreds lost their lives, and thousands were displaced. The message is clear: the continent’s patience is running out.
Potential Ripple Effects
If Nigeria, Ghana, Zimbabwe, or Mozambique joined this wave of retaliation, South Africa would face a major crisis.
Nigeria alone trades over $2.9 billion with South Africa each year, and Ghana and Zimbabwe are important partners in mining and agriculture.
Cutting these ties would worsen South Africa’s power shortages, since it relies on imported electricity and fuel, and could lead to political isolation within the African Union and the Southern African Development Community.
If South Africans were expelled from other countries, it could spark more xenophobia at home.
This would add to the instability in a country already facing 32% unemployment and high inequality. Political scapegoating often makes hostility toward migrants worse.
Nigeria’s Influence and Role
If Nigeria gets involved, the impact would be significant. As Africa’s largest economy and most populous country, Nigeria can encourage others to act.
Recalling its citizens or imposing economic sanctions would put pressure on Pretoria and signal a shift in leadership across the continent.
Nigeria’s moral authority rests on its historic support for South Africa during apartheid. At the United Nations (UN)and the Organisation of African Unity (AU), Nigeria was a tireless voice against apartheid, pressing for sanctions and the expulsion of South Africa from the Commonwealth.
It backed words with action: in 1976, Nigeria created the South Africa Relief Fund, mobilising ordinary citizens to contribute millions of dollars to the liberation struggle.
The Nigerian government provided direct financial support to movements like the African National Congress and the Pan-Africanist Congress, while also imposing an oil embargo that deprived Pretoria of a key resource.
Nigeria did more than use diplomacy and sanctions; it welcomed South African exiles, issued passports for safe travel, and offered scholarships at its universities.
Civil society also contributed. Musicians like Sonny Okosun created songs of solidarity, and citizens raised funds and joined protests.
These efforts helped isolate apartheid South Africa and support the fight for freedom. This legacy gives Nigeria a strong position today to demand accountability and lead against xenophobia. However, Nigeria must balance confrontation with diplomacy to avoid economic harm.
Improving Opportunities at Home
Nigeria’s strongest response might be to focus on its own challenges. Many Nigerians move to South Africa because there are few opportunities at home.
The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs reports that over 200,000 Nigerians live in South Africa, many of whom work in retail, education, and healthcare.
If the Nigerian government creates jobs in technology, agriculture, and manufacturing, more people could find work at home.
Improving infrastructure and security would make it less necessary to move abroad. Better healthcare and education would also make migration less appealing. These steps would help protect citizens from xenophobic attacks.
How Nigerians Benefit
Improving Nigeria’s economy would not just reduce migration but also make the country stronger. More jobs would help young people find work, lowering unemployment and unrest.
Better infrastructure would attract foreign investment and help Nigeria become a regional hub. Upgrading healthcare and education would raise the quality of life, and stronger security would help people trust the government to protect them.
These changes would help Nigerians succeed at home rather than look for opportunities elsewhere.
What Nigeria Can Do
To increase its influence, Nigeria could use both diplomatic and economic strategies. Abuja could propose African Union resolutions that clearly condemn xenophobia and establish accountability measures, such as fact-finding missions and public reports. Nigeria could also work with regional partners to create sanctions or travel bans for those involved in xenophobic acts.
It could set up joint task forces with South Africa, holding regular meetings and sharing early warnings to prevent violence.
Nigeria could also use its roles in ECOWAS and SADC to propose ways for African countries to work together to combat xenophobia.
By combining these actions with ongoing diplomacy, Nigeria can act firmly while protecting its economic interests.
Possible Outcomes for Both Countries
For South Africa, the message is clear: reform or risk isolation. The government needs to address xenophobia directly, hold people accountable, and rebuild trust with neighbouring countries.
Civil society efforts, better policing, and monitoring by the African Union could all help.
For Nigeria, the challenge is just as serious, but it also offers hope. By keeping its citizens safe abroad and improving life at home, Nigeria can turn this crisis into a chance to lead.
If Nigeria keeps its talent and resources, it will become safer and more attractive for others, shifting the balance of power in Africa.
Making the Most of the Crisis
The crisis between Botswana and Tanzania is more than a disagreement with South Africa. It is a test of Africa’s unity and Nigeria’s ability to lead.
If Nigeria steps up, it can protect its citizens, reduce desperation-driven migration, and help shift the continent’s story toward cooperation and dignity.
South Africa’s future relies on reform, while Nigeria’s future depends on having a clear vision.
Now is the time for Nigeria to turn crisis into opportunity. By protecting its people, Nigeria can redefine itself as Africa’s leading economic and diplomatic power.
