The United Nations is urging everyone to get ready for El Niño, a climate event that could bring extreme weather in the next few months.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) says there is an 80 percent chance that El Niño will develop between June and August. By Nov, the chance could rise to almost 90 percent.
El Niño happens when the tropical Pacific Ocean becomes much warmer than usual. This change disrupts global temperatures and rainfall, often causing heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rains that can lead to floods.
WMO chief Celeste Saulo warned that El Niño could make current climate problems worse and cause more challenges for farming, water supplies, energy, and health.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called El Niño “arriving on our doorstep” and urged governments to act now. He said that only strong and united climate action, like ending fossil fuel use, switching to renewables, protecting vulnerable communities, and improving early warning systems, can prevent disaster.
The WMO pointed out that even a moderate El Niño makes extreme weather more likely.
The last El Niño helped make 2023 the second-hottest year ever recorded. In 2024, global temperatures rose even higher, reaching 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels.
Forecasts show that most parts of the world will have higher-than-normal temperatures from June to August.
This raises the risk of more hazards and could make droughts worse in some places. Early centres are already predicting distinct impacts in various areas: below-average rainfall is expected in the northern Greater Horn of Africa, which could worsen drought and affect food security; South Asia may experience weaker monsoon rains, threatening agriculture and water resources.
Central America faces hotter, drier conditions, increasing wildfire risk and water shortages. Additionally, warm Pacific waters could fuel more hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific, while hurricane formation in the Atlantic could be suppressed, altering coastal risk profiles.
El Niño usually reaches its peak between November and February, but its effects often last longer. It can cause temperature spikes and disrupt global trade and food supplies.
Saulo also pointed out that El Niño affects more than just the climate. It can affect economies and people’s safety worldwide.
The WMO urges governments and communities to mobilise now. They say early warnings must lead to real steps that reduce risks. With 128 countries already using multi-hazard early warning systems, the UN is calling on all nations to have these systems in place by 2027.
At every level, act decisively. Robust climate action and investment in early warning systems are essential to defend vulnerable populations from its wide-reaching impacts. The time for preparation and response is now.