The Tinubu Factor
In Lagos politics, succession is rarely left to chance. It is carefully choreographed, often behind closed doors, and heavily influenced by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
The endorsement of Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat as the APC’s 2027 governorship candidate makes this choreography explicit.
Hamzat’s journey to this moment has been steady and deliberate, in contrast to Ambode’s rapid political ascent. A technocrat with a PhD in engineering, he has served Lagos in various capacities—first as Commissioner for Science and Technology, later as Commissioner for Works and Infrastructure, and most recently as deputy governor under Babajide Sanwo-Olu.
His dependability within the party and alignment with Tinubu made him the choice.
For APC, Hamzat signals stability and continuity for Lagos over the next decade.
Ambode’s Legacy
Akinwunmi Ambode’s story is a cautionary tale. When he was elected in 2015, he was hailed as a reform-minded technocrat who promised to modernise Lagos.
His administration delivered visible projects—the Oshodi transport interchange, new flyovers, and improvements in traffic management.
For many Lagosians, Ambode was a breath of fresh air, a governor focused on results over party politics—unlike Hamzat, who is seen as deeply rooted in the party structure.
Within APC, Ambode’s independence proved fatal. Party chairman Tunde Balogun later said Ambode “deviated from party programmes”—a damning verdict in a system where loyalty triumphs.
His strained relationship with Tinubu and other party leaders eroded his support base. By 2018, Ambode was politically vulnerable, and in a dramatic turn, he lost the APC primaries to Sanwo-Olu.
It was a stunning ousting for a sitting governor, exposing the ruthless machinery of Lagos politics.
Voices from Lagos
On the streets of Lagos, opinions remain divided. At Oshodi, a commuter reflected on Ambode’s legacy: “Ambode gave us projects we can still see today.
“But politics is not just about projects—it’s about loyalty, and he lost that battle,” said the commuter.
In Ikeja, a political analyst described Hamzat as “steady, loyal, and part of the system,” while in Surulere, a trader lamented Ambode’s fate: “He was different, maybe too independent.
“But sometimes independence is what we need. Now he’s gone, and it shows how strong Tinubu’s influence is,” said the trader.
Hamzat’s Lagos Vision
Hamzat’s endorsement signals a shift in leadership style. If elected, analysts predict he will double down on Sanwo-Olu’s infrastructure push and accelerate Lagos’s smart city ambitions.
His background suggests a focus on technology, innovation, and urban renewal, with a strong commitment to the party.
His governance is likely to align with APC’s vision, reducing the chances of internal conflict.
What Remains for Ambode
Since leaving office, Ambode has remained politically isolated. His options are limited: retreat into private life or attempt a comeback outside APC—a difficult path given Tinubu’s entrenched dominance.
His quick fall proves how fast influence dies when party support evaporates.
The Opposition Angle
Ambode’s exclusion has not gone unnoticed by rival parties. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and smaller opposition groups see an opportunity to exploit disaffection among Ambode’s supporters.
Some strategists argue that Ambode’s sidelining could be used to frame APC as intolerant of independent-minded leaders, a narrative that might resonate with voters who admired his technocratic style.
Whether Ambode himself chooses to align with the opposition remains uncertain. But his absence from APC’s inner circle leaves a vacuum that rivals may attempt to fill, especially as Lagos heads into a high-stakes election cycle.
The Bigger Picture
Hamzat’s rise and Ambode’s fall highlight the ongoing contrast between technocratic governance coupled with party loyalty, as exemplified by Hamzat, and independent-minded technocratic leadership, as embodied by Ambode, in Lagos politics.
For APC, Hamzat stands for caution and continuity. Ambode leaves a legacy defined by infrastructure but clouded by political missteps.
The city’s future now depends on Hamzat’s challenge to blend innovation with party loyalty.
Ambode’s story, meanwhile, remains a powerful reminder of the unforgiving realities of Lagos politics and a potential opening for opposition forces eager to challenge the APC’s dominance.
