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NAGS-AP’s Landmark Achievement
Government officials in Abuja gathered to celebrate what they called a major achievement. They said the National Agricultural Growth Scheme and Agro Pocket (NAGS‑AP) had produced over 2.5 million metric tons of crops in four farming seasons, worth about ₦2.3 trillion.
Dr Aliyu Abdullahi, Minister of State for Agriculture, told the audience that food prices were starting to fall. He said the scheme helped stabilize the market and boost production of wheat, rice, maize, soybeans, millet, and cassava. According to him, this showed President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda was making progress on Nigeria’s food crisis. The workshop, held with the Bank of Agriculture, aimed to review past work, find weaknesses, and plan next steps.
Rice Farmer’s Story
Hundreds of kilometres away, rice farmer Musa Ibrahim in Nasarawa had a different story to tell. He had expected subsidised fertiliser and improved seeds under NAGS‑AP. Instead, he bought inputs at full market price.
“When they announced the scheme, we thought things would change,” Musa said, leaning on his hoe after a long day in the fields. “But the fertiliser never came. We had to buy at market price, and it was too expensive.”
His cooperative pooled money to buy seeds, but they arrived late. Early rains also disrupted planting, so their harvest was less than expected. “We hear about billions spent and millions of tons harvested, but in my village, we are still struggling,” he said, raising doubts about the reality behind the headlines.
Musa’s experience highlights the gap between official statistics from Abuja and the reality for small farmers. For him, the impressive numbers feel far away.
Economists Raise Doubts
Agricultural economists have questioned the government’s figures. Dr Tunde Akinyem. Agricultural economists have also raised questions about the government’s numbers. Dr Tunde Akinyemi, a policy analyst, wondered whether the ₦2.3 trillion figure was based on farm-gate prices, market averages, or estimates. “Without independent audits, these numbers risk being inflated,” he said. Continue to report high costs. “It is one thing to announce figures in Abuja; it is another to see them reflected in the lives of farmers and consumers,” Akinyemi added.
Past Failures
Civil society groups warn that NAGS‑AP might repeat the mistakes of earlier programs. The Anchor Borrowers Programme, started in 2015, was suspended in 2022 after many loan defaults and corruption left farmers without support. The Growth Enhancement Support Scheme, launched in 2011, introduced the e-wallet system for subsidized inputs but struggled with diversion and poor oversight.
Both programs started with big promises but failed because of weak oversight. “We’ve seen this before,” said food security advocate Ngozi Eze. “NAGS‑AP must open its books to independent scrutiny to prove it is different.”
Forthcoming Projects and Pitfalls
The government says NAGS‑AP will take a new direction. Officials highlight upcoming projects, like the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) loan for rice, maize, soybean, and cassava, and NAGS 2.0 for wheat and rice starting in the 2026 wet season. They promise better monitoring and quality controls using technology, but it remains to be seen if these steps will fix old problems.
Still, issues like debt sustainability and making sure farmers are included remain important. In the past, foreign-backed projects often raised concerns about whether farmers truly benefited or if gains were lost to middlemen and bureaucracy.
The Accountability Test
The real question is not just whether NAGS‑AP can show big numbers, but whether those numbers stand up to independent checks and actually help farmers and consumers. Nigeria has seen many failed agricultural schemes that once promised change. Will this be another one?
For Musa Ibrahim, the test is simple: “If they say food is cheaper, let them come to our market and see. If they claim farmers benefit, let them ask us.” His words echo many smallholders’ frustration with big government claims.
To avoid becoming just another scheme that fades into obscurity, NAGS‑AP must allow independent audits, ensure farmers get their inputs on time, and provide clear proof that its efforts are truly reducing costs nationwide. Otherwise, the celebrated 2.5 million metric tons may be remembered as yet another empty promise—one that deepens, rather than resolves, Nigeria’s agricultural challenges.
