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As conflicts abroad push fuel prices higher, Nigeria faces a critical decision: restore its domestic refining capacity or remain exposed to external shocks. TOYE FALEYE reports.
While this challenge is not new, its urgency is now more pronounced. Ongoing turmoil in the Middle East is sending prices higher worldwide, with Nigeria—Africa’s largest oil producer—experiencing a direct impact at fuel stations.
Petrol prices have surged from ₦774 to over ₦1,000 per litre, while diesel and vitto have also risen over ₦1,000 per litre. Diesel, essential for factories and transport, has remained at ₦950 to ₦ 400.
If the Christmas prices of experts are to be believed, Nigerians may soon face petrol at ₦2,000 per litre and diesel at ₦3,000 per litre.
In response, the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) has urged the country to reduce its reliance on imports and revive local crude oil refining.
According to Dr. Billy Gillis-Harry, PETROAN’s president, the solution is straightforward: bring the dormant Port Harcourt and Warri refineries back online. He maintains this is the most effective way for Nigeria to shield itself from global oil price volatility.
Global Conflict, Local Consequences
Tensions involving Israel, the United States, and Iran have disrupted global petroleum supply chains. Drone and missile attacks threaten key oil routes, pushing crude prices higher and creating uncertainty in international markets. For Nigeria, which depends heavily on imported refined products, the consequences are immediate and severe.
“With no end in sight to the conflict, petroleum product prices are likely to keep rising,” Gillis-Harry warned. Nigerians experience the impact daily—through higher transport fares, increased production costs, and greater pressure on household budgets.
The Refinery Question
PETROAN is calling on the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) to accelerate repairs and resume production at government-owned refineries, especially the Port Harcourt Area Five Plant and the Warri Refinery. Unlike private refineries, which often depend on imported crude, these public facilities could help maintain stable supplies even if international trade is interrupted.
Rapid increases in fuel prices fuel inflation and drive up transport costs, putting additional strain on manufacturers dependent on diesel.
Gillis-Harry cautioned that if prices continue to climb unchecked, the result could be job losses and a higher cost of living across the country. “Fuel is essential for mobility, while diesel powers manufacturing and industry,” he said, underscoring the urgent need for local solutions.
Global Lessons in Refining Resilience
Nigeria is not alone in this refining challenge. Other oil-producing nations that have invested in their own refineries have managed to shield their economies from external shocks.
Saudi Arabia’s extensive refinery network allows it to export fuel and keep domestic prices stable. Angola, though smaller, is expanding its refining capacity to cut imports and stabilize its market. By contrast, Nigeria’s refineries have remained inactive, forcing citizens to weather global price swings.
The Dangote Refinery—Africa’s largest—began operations in 2024 and is viewed as a potential game-changer. Nevertheless, PETROAN argues that reviving government-owned refineries is essential to support private initiatives and ensure long-term stability.
Policy and Political Will
While President Bola Tinubu’s administration has announced reforms, PETROAN is calling for immediate, concrete action. The association is urging the government to direct NNPC to swiftly repair and reopen the refineries.
PETROAN is also asking for clear deadlines and regular updates on progress, contending that transparency and urgency will help protect citizens and foster economic growth.
This appeal forms part of a wider debate: should Nigeria remain reliant on imports, or harness its own oil resources to achieve energy independence?
Gazing Ahead
With the Middle East conflict showing no signs of resolution, PETROAN’s message is clear: restarting domestic refining is the only way to shield Nigeria from volatile prices and secure a stable energy supply.
Prioritising domestic refining could provide Nigeria with a more secure energy future, reduce dependence on global markets, and foster greater self-reliance amid uncertainty.
