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Republicans Fear Losing Congress as Iran War Drives Up Prices, Tanks Approval Ratings and Hands Democrats a Political Lifeline Ahead of November
Kehinde Adegoke | International Agencies
Despite a fragile, two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, a wave of panic surges through the Republican Party, convinced that a midterm election disaster looms as hope slips away.
Building on these concerns, a report by political news outlet Politico on the 8th reveals that Republican Party strategists and key officials, while publicly welcoming the ceasefire announcement, are privately concerned that an election defeat has become a foregone conclusion due to inflation triggered by the Iran war and a shift in public sentiment.
A White House source, voice heavy with resignation, lamented, “This Iran war has almost certainly doomed us to defeat in both the Senate and House this November.”
The most significant source of anxiety centres on the economy. Iran’s recent weaponisation of the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of the world’s oil passes—has led gasoline prices to surge past $4 per gallon, the highest since 2022.
Inflation is spiralling out of control. The Trump administration had projected an economic rebound, its confidence buoyed by expectations of large-scale tax cuts. Now, however, all economic messaging has been swallowed by the war’s black hole.
This economic anxiety is further magnified by recent election results. For example, the Republican Party struggled far more than expected in the special House election in Georgia on the 7th and suffered a crushing defeat in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, even losing a key stronghold.
Reflecting on these setbacks, a Republican strategist retorted, “The Republican Party was already losing special elections even before invading Iran, so how will the situation be after the war?” They warned, “With President Trump’s approval rating currently stuck in the high 30% range, the November elections could truly become a ‘bloodbath.’”
Given this increasingly precarious situation, analysts suggest that even if the temporary ceasefire set to expire on April 21 lapses, President Trump will find it extremely difficult to resume combat with Iran. While Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth and Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) Dan Caine have threatened that Iran has been humiliated militarily and is ready to swiftly resume operations at any moment upon command, observers in Washington note that even Iran, ahead of negotiations, has already perceived that resuming military action is a politically unfeasible option for President Trump.
Adding to the complexity, immediately after the ceasefire announcement, Brent crude prices dropped by approximately 14% to around $95 per barrel, and major stock indices rose by over 2%. The immediate economic indicators that President Trump reacts to most sensitively have begun to stabilise. However, if U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations, set to begin on the 11th in Islamabad, Pakistan, collapse and U.S. forces resume operations, Iran will undoubtedly threaten the Strait of Hormuz again, causing oil and fertiliser prices to skyrocket.
For President Trump, these intertwined economic and political considerations come into play ahead of the November midterm elections and the May summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, making the choice to escalate tensions—akin to economic “mutually assured destruction”—extremely burdensome.
Furthermore, the risks of military operations themselves are significant. Secretary Hegseth has publicly stated that if negotiations fail to secure the approximately 440 kilograms of 60% highly enriched uranium stored in underground facilities in Iran, such as Isfahan, they will forcibly seize it.
However, to seize this militarily would require deploying large-scale U.S. special operations forces—an approach that, as current and former military commanders have warned, would entail massive casualties. Divisions have already emerged, even within the “MAGA (Make America Great Again)” base, due to bypassing Congress and failing to coordinate with allies at the outset of the war. Consequently, accepting the risk of U.S. military casualties is seen as bordering on political suicide.
Ultimately, faced with pressure from voters weary of inflation and the need to somewhat defend the collapsing midterm election landscape, the clearest option for President Trump is to immediately stabilise the energy market. Thus, despite military leaders’ boastful claims that military options remain open, critics argue that President Trump’s political choices are shackled by the November elections and inflation.
